사전투표제 도입과 선거 당일 날씨 효과: 제18~21대 국회의원 선거 비례대표 투표율과 정당득표율 분석 [Early Voting and Election-Day Weather Effects: An Analysis o

Despite the widespread interest in the effects of weather on elections and the effects of the early voting system, how the early voting system affects the election-day weather effects remains as lacuna. This paper argues that the system mitigates the effects of election-day weather on election, by providing voters with the opportunity to avoid the weather-related costs of voting. An analysis of election-day precipitation and temperature data at the regional level and 18th-21st Korean legislative election results corroborates empirical evidence. The results show that election-day rain increased the vote share of liberal parties and decreased that of conservative parties when the early voting was not available, whereas these effects disappeared as the early voting system was introduced. Relatedly, the election-day rain increased the turnout of those aged 20-24 and decreased turnout of those over 50, whereas these effects vanished with the early voting system. The findings suggest that voters who are sensitive to the direct costs and opportunity costs of voting are taking advantage of the system, based on their anticipation of election-day weather.